What is the MVRV Z-score?

What it measures

The MVRV Z-score compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized capitalization — the value of every coin priced at the time it last moved, i.e. the network's aggregate cost basis — and normalizes the gap by its historical volatility. It answers: how far above or below what holders actually paid is the market trading?

How to read it

Readings below 0 mean the market trades below its aggregate cost basis — the average holder is underwater — which historically marked deep-value accumulation zones. Readings above 7 have coincided with major cycle tops in the published literature. In between is the long middle where most of the cycle happens.

Caveats

The classic thresholds come from earlier, more volatile cycles; as the market matures (ETF-era cost bases, lower volatility) the extremes compress, so we show today's percentile alongside the literature bands. Realized-cap methodology also varies slightly by data provider.

How often this actually fires. Measured 2012–2026 on an expanding window, using only data available at the time: the bottom lens fires on 1.9% of days through its percentile gate and 12.2% through the published literature constant; the top lens fires on 5.8% of days through its percentile gate and 5.7% through the published literature constant. The cycle panel requires four of eight before calling a zone, which is what keeps any single loose gate from carrying a verdict.