Part of the daily Oracle dashboard · updated every morning
NUPL — Net Unrealized Profit/Loss — measures what fraction of Bitcoin's market cap is unrealized profit: (market cap − realized cap) ÷ market cap. A reading of 0.17 would mean seventeen percent of the market's value is paper gains; below 0 the network as a whole holds paper losses.
The literature reads NUPL through named sentiment bands (the Glassnode classification): the deeper the aggregate paper loss, the closer to capitulation; the richer the paper profit, the closer to euphoria — where distribution historically began.
| Range | Reading |
|---|---|
| below 0 | capitulation — aggregate paper losses |
| 0 – 0.25 | hope / fear |
| 0.25 – 0.5 | optimism / anxiety |
| 0.5 – 0.75 | belief / denial |
| above 0.75 | euphoria / greed — historic distribution zone |
The band labels are descriptive folklore with wide historical variance — useful shorthand, not thresholds with statistical guarantees. Cohort variants (e.g. long-term-holder NUPL, which we track in the cycle panel) often tell a cleaner story than the headline number.
How often this actually fires. Measured 2012–2026 on an expanding window, using only data available at the time: the bottom lens fires on 0.8% of days through its percentile gate and 12.2% through the published literature constant; the top lens fires on 1.4% of days through its percentile gate and 1.0% through the published literature constant. The cycle panel requires four of eight before calling a zone, which is what keeps any single loose gate from carrying a verdict.
Funding rate (8h avg) — today: 0.0054% % per 8h · normal
DVOL (30d implied vol) — today: 39.8 annualized % · normal range
MVRV Z-score — today: 1.76 σ · accumulation / neutral
