What is aSOPR (adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio)?

What it measures

aSOPR is the profit ratio of coins that actually moved: sale price ÷ acquisition price of each spent output, with sub-1-hour relay transactions filtered out. At exactly 1.0, the average moving coin breaks even.

How the panel reads it

Sustained readings below 1.0 mean sellers are realizing losses — multi-week stretches define capitulation (bottom lens). Sustained readings above ~1.05 mean broad profit-taking into strength (top lens). In bull trends, 1.0 acts as support — dips to breakeven get bought.

A lens fires on its published literature threshold or an extreme percentile of the indicator's own history — whichever triggers first. Definitions on the methodology page.

Caveats

Single-day readings are noisy — the signal is in sustained deviation, not one print. Exchange internal transfers can still leak in despite the adjustment.

How often this actually fires. Measured 2012–2026 on an expanding window, using only data available at the time: the bottom lens fires on 7.1% of days through its percentile gate and 36.5% through the published literature constant; the top lens fires on 1.1% of days through its percentile gate and 32.9% through the published literature constant. The literature constant here is satisfied on a large share of all days, so on its own it is context rather than a signal. The cycle panel requires four of eight before calling a zone, which is what keeps any single loose gate from carrying a verdict.