What is Entity-adjusted Dormancy Flow?

What it measures

Dormancy Flow divides market cap by annualized dormancy — the average age (in coin-days destroyed) of coins being spent, in dollars. It asks whether the market's valuation is high or low relative to how much old coin is on the move.

How the panel reads it

Our panel uses the top lens: extreme-high readings vs history mean valuation is rich while old hands' coins move — the distribution pattern. Classic low readings (spending dominated by young coins in a fearful market) marked bottoms in the published studies. Today's reading and whether the lens is firing are shown at the top of this page.

A lens fires on its published literature threshold or an extreme percentile of the indicator's own history — whichever triggers first. Definitions on the methodology page.

Caveats

The published bottom studies used a different normalization (price/dormancy-flow bands); our panel reads percentile extremes of this series' own history, so cross-reference with the other cohort reads before drawing conclusions.

How often this actually fires. Measured 2012–2026 on an expanding window, using only data available at the time: the top lens fires on 40.0% of days through its percentile gate and it has no literature constant. Its percentile gate also fires far more often than the nominal 5%, which happens when a series trends rather than mean-reverts — read it with that in mind. The cycle panel requires four of eight before calling a zone, which is what keeps any single loose gate from carrying a verdict.