What is LTH-NUPL (long-term holder NUPL)?

What it measures

LTH-NUPL is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss computed only over coins held longer than ~155 days — the long-term-holder cohort. It asks: how underwater or in-profit is the conviction money?

How the panel reads it

LTHs rarely go underwater; when LTH-NUPL falls below 0.5 the cohort's optimism zone is breached (our bottom lens), and historic capitulation lows pushed it near or below 0. Above 0.9, nearly all LTH value is paper profit — historically where distribution into strength began.

A lens fires on its published literature threshold or an extreme percentile of the indicator's own history — whichever triggers first. Definitions on the methodology page.

Caveats

The 155-day cohort boundary is a convention; cohort metrics lag fast regime changes by construction.

How often this actually fires. Measured 2012–2026 on an expanding window, using only data available at the time: the bottom lens fires on 2.4% of days through its percentile gate and 39.8% through the published literature constant; the top lens fires on 0.1% of days through its percentile gate and 11.1% through the published literature constant. The literature constant here is satisfied on a large share of all days, so on its own it is context rather than a signal. The cycle panel requires four of eight before calling a zone, which is what keeps any single loose gate from carrying a verdict.