What are Hash Ribbons?

What it measures

Hash Ribbons compare a short moving average of network hash rate to a long one. When the ratio compresses below 1.0, hash power is leaving the network — miners are unplugging at a loss.

How the panel reads it

Capitulation (ratio < 1.0, our bottom lens) marks maximum miner stress; the subsequent recovery cross back above 1.0 is the classic published buy-study. The panel uses the stress reading, not the cross timing.

A lens fires on its published literature threshold or an extreme percentile of the indicator's own history — whichever triggers first. Definitions on the methodology page.

Caveats

Hash rate is estimated from block times, so short windows are noisy; energy-price shocks and mining-ban migrations (2021) can fire it without a price bottom.

How often this actually fires. Measured 2012–2026 on an expanding window, using only data available at the time: the bottom lens fires on 4.1% of days through its percentile gate and 16.0% through the published literature constant. The cycle panel requires four of eight before calling a zone, which is what keeps any single loose gate from carrying a verdict.