What is Bitcoin's Reserve Risk indicator?

What it measures

Reserve Risk divides price by the cumulative opportunity cost holders forgo by not selling (the 'HODL bank'). Low values mean price is cheap relative to demonstrated conviction; high values mean holders are being richly paid to stay.

How the panel reads it

Below 0.002 conviction is at maximum relative to price — every historic accumulation zone printed here. Above 0.02 the incentive flips: holders are rewarded for selling — the top lens.

A lens fires on its published literature threshold or an extreme percentile of the indicator's own history — whichever triggers first. Definitions on the methodology page.

Caveats

Its long secular downtrend (coins mature over time) makes absolute thresholds drift — which is why the panel also gates on the indicator's own percentile history.

How often this actually fires. Measured 2012–2026 on an expanding window, using only data available at the time: the bottom lens fires on 12.9% of days through its percentile gate and 58.3% through the published literature constant; the top lens fires on 0.0% of days through its percentile gate and 0.3% through the published literature constant. The literature constant here is satisfied on a large share of all days, so on its own it is context rather than a signal. The cycle panel requires four of eight before calling a zone, which is what keeps any single loose gate from carrying a verdict.