What is STH-SOPR (short-term holder SOPR)?

What it measures

STH-SOPR is the Spent Output Profit Ratio restricted to coins held less than ~155 days — the speculator cohort. It reads whether recent buyers are selling at a profit or dumping at a loss.

How the panel reads it

Sustained readings above 1.03 mean the fast money is aggressively ringing the register — speculative froth (top lens). Below 1.0, recent buyers capitulate at a loss; in uptrends, tags of 1.0 that hold are the classic dip-buy tell.

A lens fires on its published literature threshold or an extreme percentile of the indicator's own history — whichever triggers first. Definitions on the methodology page.

Caveats

The noisiest cohort read — it whipsaws in chop; the panel's sustained-extreme gating matters more here than anywhere.

How often this actually fires. Measured 2012–2026 on an expanding window, using only data available at the time: the top lens fires on 0.8% of days through its percentile gate and 29.7% through the published literature constant. The literature constant here is satisfied on a large share of all days, so on its own it is context rather than a signal. The cycle panel requires four of eight before calling a zone, which is what keeps any single loose gate from carrying a verdict.