One of the cycle-indicator panel's classical reads · updated every morning
The Market/Realized price ratio is the raw, un-normalized cousin of the MVRV Z-score: current price divided by realized price (the average price at which every coin last moved — the network's aggregate cost basis).
Below 1.0, the market trades under what holders collectively paid — the historic deep-value zone where every past cycle bottom formed. Because it isn't volatility-normalized, its extremes drift less across eras than the Z-score's.
| Zone | Reading |
|---|---|
| below 1.0 | under cost basis — historic bottom zone (fires the bottom lens) |
| 1.0 – 2.0 | normal — moderate aggregate profit |
| above ~3.5 | rich — large paper profits, distribution risk |
A lens fires on its published literature threshold or an extreme percentile of the indicator's own history — whichever triggers first. Definitions on the methodology page.
Lost coins inflate realized price's denominator age; ETF-era accumulation lifts the cost basis toward spot, compressing extremes vs earlier cycles.
How often this actually fires. Measured 2012–2026 on an expanding window, using only data available at the time: the bottom lens fires on 0.8% of days through its percentile gate and 12.3% through the published literature constant. The cycle panel requires four of eight before calling a zone, which is what keeps any single loose gate from carrying a verdict.
MVRV Z-score — today: 1.76
NUPL — today: 0.345
LTH-NUPL — today: 0.391 · bottom firing
Reserve Risk — today: 0.0011 · bottom firing
aSOPR — today: 1.061 · top firing
Puell Multiple — today: 1.10
Hash Ribbons — today: 0.994 · bottom firing
Dormancy Flow — today: 105,114,909 · top firing
STH-SOPR — today: 1.063 · top firing
