What is the Puell Multiple?

What it measures

The Puell Multiple divides today's miner revenue (in USD) by its 365-day average — a gauge of whether the sell-pressure source of last resort is being paid feast or famine.

How the panel reads it

Below 0.5, miners earn half their yearly norm — the capitulation band where weak miners shut off and forced selling exhausts (bottom lens). Above 4.0, miners are massively over-earning — historically clustered at cycle tops (top lens).

A lens fires on its published literature threshold or an extreme percentile of the indicator's own history — whichever triggers first. Definitions on the methodology page.

Caveats

Halvings mechanically halve revenue, so readings straddling a halving need care; fee spikes (ordinals-style) can distort short windows.

How often this actually fires. Measured 2012–2026 on an expanding window, using only data available at the time: the bottom lens fires on 8.5% of days through its percentile gate and 4.1% through the published literature constant; the top lens fires on 0.6% of days through its percentile gate and 2.3% through the published literature constant. The cycle panel requires four of eight before calling a zone, which is what keeps any single loose gate from carrying a verdict.