BTC · daily close (UTC) · 2026-07-31analysis written 2026-08-01

AI stance · confidence

Bitcoin 2026-07-31 daily brief — AI stance: neutral

$62,888

▼ 3.0% 1d -1.9% 7d

Cycle position

Bottom Zone

4/8 bottom-lens · 0/8 top-lens

Markov regime

De-risked

model: cash

Volatility · DVOL

Low

35.6 · 6th pctile, trailing year

Alt-euphoria

Quiet

23/37 listings · BTC trend bear

01The brief

AI analysis by Claude over the daily research pipeline. Sometimes wrong — the record is public and continuous.

confidence vol LOW cycle bottom zone

02Levels

Where the thesis lives and dies — resistance above, support below, the floor that is the line in the sand.

71,473+13.7%200-day moving averageResistance

66,257+5.4%30-day high — a daily close above turns the view bullishBreak ↑

62,888—current closeNow

58,519-6.9%30d / 60d / 90d floor — a close below is a range breakdownFloor ↓

03Cycle indicators

The classical bottom/top reads behind the cycle verdict. A lens fires on its published threshold or an extreme percentile of the indicator's own history — whichever triggers first.

4/8 bottom-lens firing 0/8 top-lens firing verdict bottom zone

MVRV Z-score 0.63

Market cap vs realized cap, z-scored. < 0 = underwater on average

21st pctile quiet

Market/Realized ratio 1.19

< 1.0 → price below aggregate cost basis

20th pctile quiet

NUPL 0.160

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. < 0 = net unrealized loss (capitulation)

20th pctile quiet

LTH-NUPL 0.206

Long-term-holder NUPL. Low values = LTH cohort underwater

18th pctile bottom · firing

Reserve Risk 0.0008

Holder conviction relative to price. < 0.002 = max conviction

2nd pctile bottom · firing

aSOPR 0.972

Adjusted SOPR. Multiple weeks ≤ 1.0 → ongoing capitulation

22nd pctile bottom · firing

Puell Multiple 0.80

Miner revenue / 365d avg. < 0.5 = miner capitulation

29th pctile quiet

Hash Ribbons 0.989

Short MA / long MA of hash rate. Compression below 1.0 = miner stress

10th pctile bottom · firing

Dormancy Flow 15,318,957

Extreme dormancy flow = old coins distributing

61st pctile quiet

STH-SOPR 0.967

Short-term holder SOPR > 1.03 = speculative profit-taking

19th pctile quiet

04Metrics

Δ vs prior day. The bar shows where today sits in each metric's own history — left is cheap/fearful, right is expensive/euphoric.

Funding rate (8h avg)0.0061%

% per 8h · normal · ▼ 0.0004pp

fearful37th pctile · full historyeuphoric

DVOL (30d implied vol)35.6

annualized % · low vs the last year · ▲ 0.1

calm6th pctile · trailing yearstressed

MVRV Z-score0.63

σ · accumulation / neutral · ▼ 0.119

underwater21st pctile · full historytop zone

NUPL0.160

hope / fear · ▼ 0.0244

capitulation20th pctile · full historyeuphoria

06Own signals

Two indicators we build ourselves — an alt-listing churn index and a paper AI trader, published T+1.

Alt-euphoria gauge · 90d

23/37

Quiet

Our own alt-listing churn index · BTC trend: bear

AI trader · paper, published T+1

closed trades

29%

hit rate

-0.45%

mean / trade

Trial 1 · retired 4 closed · 50% · -0.01% mean 2026-05-09 → 2026-06-23, long-only; closed 2026-07-02 with a REJECT verdict

Trial 2 · running 3 closed · 0% · -1.02% mean 2026-07-03 → 2026-09-01, bidirectional with real stops

Every call recorded, wins and losses alike — no deleted calls, no cherry-picking. The two trials measure different things, so the running total is shown with its split rather than as one number.

01The brief

02Levels

03Cycle indicators

04Metrics

06Own signals

Brief archive